Gain a better understanding of the commercial viability of renewable energy projects
Understanding the risks and opportunities of project developments is increasingly complex. To enable the renewable energy transition, power systems and market modelling can ensure timely energy transitions by working closely together.
“Power systems studies without paying attention to market dynamics and regulations can cause project delays, while market modelling without power systems considerations can lead to unrealistic forecasts, incurring unnecessary costs for clients.”
Nadali Mahmoudi, Electricity Network Advisor
Forecasts must focus on both power systems and economic metrics
Forecasting generation capacity based solely on economic metrics, such as least-cost development, often fails to reflect reality. Market modelling forecasts for battery energy storage systems (BESS) underestimate actual capacity developments, which is evident from the significant number of BESS grid connection applications.
Similarly, accurate Marginal Loss Factor (MLF) forecasts require reasonable AC load flow convergence, as ignoring voltage outcomes beyond acceptable ranges can result in excess reactive flow and lower MLF, making projects appear less financially attractive. Approaches like DC load flow, which ignores reactive power, also yield incorrect MLF forecasts.
NEM constraints are dynamic and must be updated with network changes
Ensuring network changes such as new transmission lines or compensator devices is essential to accurately assess congestion and generation curtailment risks. Both thermal and stability constraints need to be considered in market modelling for precise network limitations and generation curtailment estimates.
At EPEC, we integrate power systems expertise with market modelling
Our market modelling, based on MLF and constraints fundamentals, is enhanced through our power systems knowledge, resulting in an integrated PLEXOS and PSSE model.
We collaborate with clients to customise market modelling and provide valuable insights, from early-stage planning to financial close and transactions.
For more information, contact Nadali Mahmoudi, Electricity Network Advisor, EPEC Group at nadali.mahmoudi@epecgroup.com.au.